by 2006 two employees will leave the workforce for every new one entering;
by 2008, there will be a national shortage of ten million employees.
In an election cycle where both candidates admit job loss, and when off-shoring is becoming de rigueur, these numbers seem over-inflated. Following is an index of the most common arguments I hear refuting BLS statistics, along with my responses.
Argument 1: Baby Boomers cannot afford to retire because their IRA's took a dump in the early 2000s. Therefore, they won't be exiting the workforce at BLS's predicted rates.
R2: The US trend towards early and on-time retirement is recession-proof. Simply put, regardless of the size of a person's retirement portfolio, folks don't remain employed any longer than they must. The lure of the golf course and loft-living is magnetic and irrefutable. Further, many companies, in an effort to cut costs, continue to offer attractive early out packages for boomers. I expect that Baby Boomers will drop out of the "traditional" labor force when their pensions and retirement savings are adequate, and will supplement it with consulting (to their former employer), entrepreneurship, or non-traditional work arrangements like job-sharing, pooling, or part time gigs. That's very good news, because our economy needs Baby Boomers' labor force participation and experience.
Argument 2: The Millennial generation is larger than Generation X. As they begin to enter the labor force, they will offset any predicted "talent shortage."
R2: The Millennial generation IS larger than Gen X. Provided we don't reinstate the draft and send them on a one-way ticket to war, the Millennials will be a larger generation than the X'ers, and will provide a much needed boost for companies in need of entry level employees. But to back-fill the Baby Boomer retirement gap will take years. Even more critically, Baby Boomers are leaving a gap in the C'suite that Millennials will not be ready to fill until their experience and skills warrant it.
Argument 3: Worker productivity is up, so we don't need as many employees in the workforce.
R2: You're darn right worker productivity is up. Today, you are doing your work, plus part of someone else's (former) job. American workers are pushing themselves harder in an effort to hang onto the jobs they have. But it can't last. This level of productivity is unsustainable; even Sir Alan (Greenspan) says so. And for all the self-congratulations for worker productivity, it's costing us. Some of America's most widely swallowed pills are Paxil, Prozac, and Zoloft – meds that take the edge of the unsustainable stress of high productivity.
Footnote:
Dosing overworked Americans is a blood sport for Pharma, and an expense that's driving some small businesses – through their health insurance costs – out of business. Sharon Davis and Mary Palmer are two budget analysts who've crunched some numbers on how badly we're being bilked to pay for our meds. If you've ever wondered what it costs a drug company for the active ingredient in prescription medications, see their chart below. Davis and Palmer did a search of offshore chemical synthesizers that supply the active ingredients found in drugs approved by the FDA. In their independent investigation of how much profit drug companies really make, Palmer and Davis obtained the actual price of active ingredients used in some of the most popular drugs sold in America.
*Celebrex 100 mg Consumer price (100 tablets): $130.27 Cost of general active ingredients: $0.60 Percent markup: 21,712%
*Claritin 10 mg Consumer Price (100 tablets): $215.17 Cost of general active ingredients: $0.71 Percent markup: 30,306%
*Keflex 250 mg Consumer Price (100 tablets): $157.39 Cost of general active ingredients: $1.88 Percent markup: 8,372%
*Lipitor 20 m g Consumer Price (100 tablets): $272.37 Cost of general active ingredients: $5.80 Percent markup: 4,696%
*Norvasec 10 mg Consumer price (100 tablets): $188.29 Cost of general active ingredients: $0.14 Percent markup: 134,493%
*Paxil 20 mg Consumer price (100 tablets): $220.27 Cost of general active ingredients: $7.60 Percent markup: 2,898%
*Prevacid 30 mg Consumer price (100 tablets): $44.77 Cost of general active ingredients: $1.01 Percent markup: 34,136%
*Prilosec 20 mg Consumer price (100 tablets): $360.97 Cost of general active ingredients $0.52 Percent markup: 69,417%
*Prozac 20 mg Consumer price (100 tablets) : $247.47 Cost of general active ingredients: $0.11 Percent markup: 224,973%
*Tenormin 50 mg Consumer price (100 tablets): $104.47 Cost of general active ingredients: $0.13 Percent markup: 80,362%
*Vasotec 10 mg Consumer price (100 tablets): $102.37 Cost of general active ingredients: $0.20 Percent markup: 51,185%
*Xanax 1 mg Consumer price (100 tablets) : $136.79 Cost of general active ingredients: $0.024 Percent markup: 569,958%
*Zestril 20 mg Consumer price (100 tablets) $89.89 Cost of general active ingredients $3.20 Percent markup: 2,809%
*Zithromax 600 mg Consumer price (100 tablets): $1,482.19 Cost of general active ingredients: $18.78 Percent markup: 7,892%
*Zocor 40 mg Consumer price (100 tablets): $350.27 Cost of general active ingredients: $8.63 Percent markup: 4,059%
*Zoloft 50 mg Consumer price: $206.87 Cost of general active ingredients: $1.75 Percent markup: 11,821%
Sharon L. Davis; Budget Analyst, U.S. Department of Commerce, Room 6839; Office Ph: 202-482-4458; Office Fax: 202-482-5480; Email Address: sdavis@doc.gov
Mary Palmer, Budget Analyst, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Office of Budget & Finance; Voice: (202) 606-9295; Fax: (202) 606-5324
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